How did Cancellara lose?

Looking back on Tour of Flanders favorite's failure The odds on defending champion Fabian Cancellara were so high that some were starting to view the race itself as a formality, but then the unthinkable happened. Cancellara failed to capitalize on two successful escapes, and ultimately was left to watch Nick Nuyens raise his arms under the banner. Before you jump all over his collapse on the Muur as the reason for this shocking turnaround, the signs were all over throughout the race. Here are three.

1. Timing

Cancellara went far too early. His initial attack from 60 km out of the finish line and the ensuing chasedown by the peloton was simply a result of Cancellara giving himself too steep of a task and just more work than even his legs can handle. Cancellara always says that he never judges his attacks by distance, but rather by how he feels, but you can feel as good as you like and your chances from that far out will still be slim.

Ironically, Tom Boonen's mistake actually turned out to be a great help to the rest of the field. With a lone teammate (Chavanel) blazing his way up the road, Boonen attacked while Hushovd controlled the tempo. Unfortunately for him, he was allowed to escape by everyone in the peloton except the one man he was trying to drop; Fabian Cancellara. Cancellara would soon drop him as well and set out in lone pursuit of Chavanel, with over 50 km still to race. I have no idea what Boonen was thinking. He certainly should have expected Cancellara (who was on second wheel) to respond and maybe he planned to send Cancellara on his attack early. Regardless of whether or not it was intentional, it worked. Cancellara cracked later on the Muur, and although he would recover, his best opportunity at a win had been wasted.

2. Lack of Cooperation

Nobody wanted to help Cancellara all day long, and he was forced to do nearly all of the work in every move he made. When he joined up with Chavanel, the French rider made his intentions clear right off the bat when he sat up and waited for Spartacus to power past him before latching onto his back wheel. Every time Cancellara would motion for Chavanel to take a turn, the Frenchman declined and Cancellara was essentially dragging Chavanel along for the ride in an ITT from hell.

Even after the two had been caught, the riders that joined them were content to simply latch onto the back and continue to allow him to do the pacemaking. Philippe Gilbert's ill-fated attack on the Bosberg gave Cancellara a little time to catch his breath, but then the pressure was on him to attack again to avoid having to face Boonen in a sprint. When Cancellara made his move with Chavanel and Nuyens, he was still forced to do the pacemaking work for the majority of the run in to the finish, and it greatly affected him in the sprint.

These riders and their team cars aren't stupid. They know who is the man to beat and they had a plan to beat him. Perhaps Chavanel was still working for Boonen at the time, but it can be said with reasonable assurance that the two would have survived if Chavanel did his share of the work. In retrospect, even Chavanel regretted not helping Cancellara because he felt that he could have taken him in a sprint.

3. Boonen's Final Move

This one is simple. Cancellara was the one leading the trio into the run to the finish. At the same time, Boonen launched a desperate attack to attempt to catch the three just before the line. He was coming dangerously close, and Cancellara (being the leader) was forced to launch his sprint very early. This allowed Nuyens enough time to register the move, and respond with a more powerful attack of his own. Would Spartacus have won in the sprint had Boonen not attacked? Maybe, maybe not, but it would have been significantly closer.

No problem. It may hurt now for Fabian, but he always has next year. Or better yet next week. Paris-Roubaix would be a great place for redemption.