18.5 km
Here's what the GC looks like going into stage 5:1. Robert Gesink
2. Edvald Boasson-Hagen -44
3. Dries Devenyns -57
4. Christian Vandevelde -1:03
5. Giovanni Visconti -1:03
6. Greg Van Avermaet -1:09
7. Maxime Monfort -1:15
8. Michael Albasini -1:15
9. Juan Antonio Flecha -1:22
10. Patrik Sinkewitz -1:33
11. Fabian Cancellara -1:44
It's not often you see an ITT quite like this. Not only do they have a tricky climb on the profile, but they have to circle back and climb it twice in a short 18.5 km span. The standings are set up perfectly for a very close margin of victory either way, and the race may end up coming down to a few seconds.
-Robert Gesink starts the day with a 44 second advantage, but I'm sure that most if not all of that will disappear. Gesink is certainly not known for his ITT abilities, although the climbs may play a bit to his advantage. The best advice he can take is to just relax and not worry about what the guys in front of him are doing. It's not out of the question to think that he can hold 44 seconds on such a short time trial, but he'll need a great ride.
But this pressure is not completely because of Gesink's time trial woes. It's because of who is behind him.
-Edvald Boasson-Hagen sits in 2nd place, and is primed for victory in his 1st race of the season. He did exactly what he had to on the climb, and now it's up to him to do what he does best. (well actually he does just about everything) A time trial like this suits his skill set perfectly, and he can eat right into Gesink's 44 seconds if he just executes the way he usually does.
Boasson-Hagen will probably have more pressure from behind than he will from Gesink.
-Dries Devenyns sits in 3rd. He is not a fantastic ITT rider, but he can hold his own. 57 seconds behind Gesink (13 behind EBH) would probably be a lot for him to make up to contend for the overall, but he may be able to hang on to his podium place. (assuming nothing significant happens on Sunday).
-Christian Vandevelde may be the sleeper waiting in the wings. At 1:03 behind (19 behind EBH) he will need quite the ride (and probably some difficulty from Boasson-Hagen). Vandevelde can certainly work his way into the top 2 and be right there if Boasson-Hagen messes up.
-Giovanni Visconti, Greg Van Avermaet, Maxime Monfort, and Michael Albasini aren't really GC threats at this point, but they will probably stay in the top 10.
-Juan Antonio Flecha sits in 9th (1:22 back) and he can potentially move up a few spots. With a few weaker TT riders in front of him, he can move up quite a bit in the standings. He would need quite a few guys to have problems though if he wants a shot at the overall. At this point I'd put him as an outside contender for the podium.
But there's one guy lurking closer than anybody thought he'd be...
-Defending champion Fabian Cancellara managed to drag himself up the climb and sits in 11th (1:44 back). He is without a doubt the best time trialist in the world, but to make up a gap like that (especially with a few good time trialists in front of him) in just 18.5 kms would probably be asking too much. But he can gain a good bit of ground. The only thing that worries me is that this isn't the usual ITT he dominates at, and the climbs may throw him off.
That's just about everyone with the slightest inkling of a chance of impacting the General Classification tomorrow.
As for the stage, I'd keep an eye on Lars Boom and Cam Meyer. Taylor Phinney also makes his professional TT debut in his U23 TT jersey. Phinney even said himself that this course doesn't really fit his style, but he will still probably be near the top of the leaderboard.
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