Ladies and Gentlemen it all comes down to this. One day...2 hours...90 kilometers...20 laps. That is all that stands in the way of Cam Meyer and one of the biggest wins of his career but unlike previous years of the TDU this one is anything but a guarantee.
The Course: 90 km (20 laps of 4.5 km). The criterium finish of the Tour Down Under is often a fun way to wrap it up but rarely ever means anything in the General Classification. It is a series of laps around the city council. Very flat and almost always goes to the sprinters.
The Standings:
1. Cam Meyer
2. Matt Goss -8
3. Laurens tan Dem -10
4. Michael Matthews -12
5. Francisco Ventoso -17
6. Ben Swift -18
7. Blel Kadri -26
8. Andre Greipel -27
9. Allan Davis -28
10. Luke Roberts -28
The Situation:
Cam Meyer starts the day with an 8 second lead over Matt Goss. If the stage goes to the sprinters than all he needs to do is finish at -s.t, right?
Not necessarily
Every stage winner gets a -10 second time bonus. Goss starts the day 8 seconds behind so assuming Meyer finishes outside the top 3 and Goss pulls off the win than he will vault himself ahead of Cam. Now keep in mind that there are also 2 intermediate sprint points at lap 8 and lap 12 on the course that can give a bonus of 3 seconds each.
Don't count out Michael Matthews either, as he starts just 12 seconds behind Meyer. He would not only need to win the stage but also at least one of the intermediate sprints on the road. Then, assuming Cam Meyer does not take one of the top 3 spots then he could spring himself ahead of Meyer by 1 second with the 3 + the 10 second bonus.
Theoretically Laurens tan Dem can also control his own destiny if Meyer stays with the peloton because he starts the day just 10 seconds behind but I imagine he would probably work for his teammate Matthews.
Everyone else would need help...
Also note not to take it for granted that Meyer finishes with the bunch. Strange things have happened before (crash, mechanical, etc...). If Meyer has trouble and falls out of contention than it is Goss defending a 2 second lead over tan Dem, 4 over Matthews, and 9 seconds over yesterday's winner Francisco Ventoso (who starts the day 17 seconds behind Meyer).
Obviously there are endless scenarios that involve late attacks and riders that can potentially take the title via breakaway (like Ben Swift at 18 seconds behind or Luke Roberts/Alessandro Ballan/Gorka Izagirre/Ben Hermans all at -28 from Meyer).
So What to Watch For...
Before they even hit the line, the intermediate sprints will be incredibly interesting. Rabobank will be going all out for Bling, HTC will be working like crazy to spring Goss, and perhaps the most intriguing thing will be the response of Garmin-Cervelo. Meyer probably won't be a factor in the sprints but Tyler Farrar and Julian Dean (who have no chance whatsoever) can steal the points away from the guys trying to catch up to Meyer.
At the end don't take it for granted that Goss will win, although he certainly is the favorite. There will be plenty of teams (like Radioshack:McEwen, Vacansoleil: Feillu, Omega: Greipel, and Astana: Davis) that haven't had much success in the race this year and have one last shot to make thier mark.
So tune in. A lot of television networks will be covering it including versus in the US. Starts at 1:15 local time and around 9:45 in the states.
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